DIXON

As on June 12, 2021;
Dixon was observed to be running along higher lows and constructing an ascending triangle on weekly basis.

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On June 18, 2021; It gave a clean weekly breakout along with average volume and closed above the horizontal resistance of 4383, The closing price was 4427.15 .
It is now in the uncharted territory.
Sustenance above 4383 and a breakout above fib 0.618 extension level (4441.35) would trigger 4500+.

Disclaimer- For educational purposes only, Views are not an advice.
Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any decision.

Wyckoff’s Trading Cycle

Wyckoff trading cycle is a great frame work for analyzing and understanding the Market behavior. According to it, there are 4 stages namely- Accumulation, Mark-up, Distribution and Mark-down.

  • Accumulation Phase:
    Begins with institutional investors-such as mutual funds, large banks etc. There is Mass buying of shares of a given stock. Price forms a base as the shares of stock are accumulated at the bottom of a bear market. Market moves sideways in a range and is spread over a long time horizon. One of the Common accumulation pattern- Cup and Handle.
  • Markup Phase:
    When the price breaks out of a range and begins an uptrend, it is called to be a markup phase. This stage is when the price begins moving up. The big money has established a position and retail investors are now invited to join in the profit party. This is the most profitable time to own the stock.
  • Distribution Phase:
    The distribution phase begins as the markup phase ends and price enters another range period. Institutional investors who accumulated at the bottom begin to distribute/ sell before anyone else. This time, the sellers want to maintain higher prices until the shares are sold i.e selling off the shares to the ones entering at a high price. One of the common distribution pattern- Head and Shoulders.
  • Markdown Phase:
    The last phase of the stock cycle is the markdown phase. Markdown begins when the price makes a lower high and no new high. It is when institutions sell inventory, simply taking profit or to change position into another stock or sector. The markdown phase is a downtrend.
  • Naturally, the market doesn’t always follow these phases accurately. Though it’s an interesting framework but has certain limitations:

    1. It is a task to identify the accumulation and distribution phases. Sometimes, what seems to be accumulation turns out to be distribution and vice-versa.

    2. In a similar manner, It becomes difficult to plan a trade as the price moves in a range.

    3. The cycle doesn’t always follow:
    1. Accumulation 2. Mark-up 3. Distribution 4. Mark-down.
    It might go around like 1.Mark-up 2. Distribution 3. Mark-down.
  • In essence, the Wyckoff Method allows investors to make more logical decisions rather than acting out of emotions. But, One shouldn’t just rely on it, rather combine it with other price action strategies.

    Read about the cycle of market emotions- https://www.tradetales.in/the-cycle-of-market-emotions/

    ~For educational purposes only, the charts are used for reference to the content to ease explanation.

Berger Paints

Berger paint looks good technically after giving a breakout from Bullish pennant and chart shows good price compression below the supply zone.
Now why I’m bullish here is because the Trend is overall bullish and in this scenario mostly i’ve observed that breakouts happen on the upside and accumulating before the breakout gives good Risk to reward ratio.

This post is only shared for educational purposes. Kindly refer to your financial advisor before making any decision.
PEACE.

NIFTYBANK, What lies ahead?

On May 28,2021; Banknifty opened at 35,345 (Highest since mid of March,2021). Though the Index seemed weak, as it approached Point D (35,141) and stalled there.

For the upcoming sessions, Banknifty can be expected to move till 35,768; Where the next Harmonic reversal stands. The price might take a toll, before continuing the trend.

Lastly, After having breached the above levels, 36,850+ can be anticipated and would be a key level to watch. More involvement is expected in the coming week.

RELIANCE

Reliance closed after a strong up-move of nearly 6% amongst NIFTY’s top gainer’s. As per the technical view, Point B was taken out and Currently, Reliance is stationing at the 0.618 level. This would be a very interesting script to watch out for the next sessions.
If Reliance sustains above Point B and also, breaches the 0.618 level, We can see 2100+ soon.

The news that might have triggered a bullish move along with a huge spike in volume in Reliance:

Jefferies said a sustained strong performance by the petrochemical vertixal will improve the likelihood of O2C business stake sale in FY22 and may lead to a reversal of the 40 per cent underperformance in the Nifty pack.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/59-upside-in-ril-heres-what-jefferies-said-to-give-the-stock-a-big-lift/articleshow/83034356.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst